Between victory and peace: Unravelling the paradox of hope in intractable conflicts.

Previous research on group-based hope has predominantly focused on positive intergroup outcomes, such as peace and harmony. In this paper, we demonstrate that hope experienced towards group-centric political outcomes, such as a victory in a conflict and defeating the enemy, can be detrimental to peace. In Study 1, conducted among Israeli Jews, hope for victory over the Palestinians was uniquely associated with more support for extreme war policies, whereas hope for peace generally showed the opposite associations. In Study 2, we replicated these results among Muslim Pakistanis regarding the Pakistan-India dispute. Notably, in both Studies 1 and 2, only hope for victory significantly predicted personal violent extremist intentions. In Study 3, conducted with a representative sample of Israeli Jews, we found three latent profiles of hope: victory hopers, peace hopers, and dual hopers (hoping for both peace and victory). Finally, in preregistered Study 4, we longitudinally investigated how hopes for victory and peace changed from a relatively calm period in 2021 to the Israel-Hamas War of 2023, utilizing a Bivariate Latent Change Score analysis. Increases in hope for victory during the highly intense war explained the increase in support for violence. We discuss implications, limitations, and directions for future research.

What Should I do and Who's to blame? A cross-national study on youth's attitudes and beliefs in times of COVID-19.

The COVID-19 crisis has had a major impact on youth. This study examined factors associated with youth's attitudes towards their government's response to the pandemic and their blaming of individuals from certain risk groups, ethnic backgrounds, and countries or regions. In a sample of 5,682 young adults (Mage = 22) from 14 countries, lower perceived burden due to COVID-19, more collectivistic and less individualistic values, and more empathy were associated with more positive attitudes towards the government and less blaming of individuals of certain groups. Youth's social identification with others in the pandemic mediated these associations in the same direction, apart from the COVID-19 burden on attitudes, which had a positive indirect effect. No evidence of country-level moderation was found.

The true role that suppressor effects play in condition-based regression analysis: None. A reply to Fiedler (2021).

Condition-based regression analysis (CRA) is a statistical method for testing self-enhancement effects. That is, CRA indicates whether, in a set of empirical data, people with higher values on the directed discrepancy self-view S minus reality criterion R (i.e., S-R) tend to have higher values on some outcome variable (e.g., happiness). In a critical comment, Fiedler (2021) claims that CRA yields inaccurate conclusions in data with a suppressor effect. Here, we show that Fiedler's critique is unwarranted. All data that are simulated in his comment show a positive association between S-R and H, which is accurately detected by CRA. By construction, CRA indicates an association between S-R and H only when it is present in the data. In contrast to Fiedler's claim, it also yields valid conclusions when the outcome variable is related only to the self-view or when there is a suppressor effect. Our clarifications provide guidance for evaluating Fiedler's comment, clear up with the common heuristic that suppressor effects are always problematic, and assist readers in fully understanding CRA. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Disentangling contact and socialization effects on outgroup attitudes in diverse friendship networks.

Friendships with members of our own group (ingroup) and other groups (outgroups) shape our attitudes toward outgroups. Research on intergroup contact has shown that the numbers of outgroup and ingroup friends we have influence our outgroup attitudes, whereas research on socialization has shown that the attitudes held by our friends influence our outgroup attitudes. Past research, however, examined these processes in isolation, which precludes discerning whether having friends, or the attitudes held by our friends, are both important in shaping our outgroup attitudes, and, if so, which is more important. To disentangle these effects, we conducted a 5-wave social network study in 2 ethnically diverse schools (N = 1,170 students). By applying a novel longitudinal coevolution model, we were able to separate the effects of having ingroup and outgroup friends (contact effects), and the effects of those friends' attitudes (socialization effects), on individuals' outgroup attitudes, while controlling for friendship selection processes. In so doing, we found that it is principally the attitudes of ingroup friends-not outgroup friends' attitudes or having ingroup and outgroup friends alone-that predict individuals' outgroup attitudes. Our findings have important theoretical implications, as we demonstrate that combining the divergent approaches of intergroup contact and socialization enables us to better understand outgroup attitude development. Our findings also have practical implications, as we show that, even in diverse environments, individuals rely primarily on friends from their own group to inform their attitudes toward other groups. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Adolescent development of interethnic attitudes following a social intervention to increase intergroup contact: The moderating role of affective forecasting.

This longitudinal, quasi-experimental field study investigated affective forecasting as a moderator of positive intergroup contact effects among adolescents. We also examined a novel mediating mechanism that underlies this effect, namely accuracy of perceived outgroup willingness for intergroup contact. Three annual waves of survey data were used from 1,169 adolescents (Mage = 13.88 at Wave 1; 50% girls; 66% White British, 44% Asian British) whose schools were merged, in a unique intervention that resulted in one school where ethnic groups were evenly mixed (i.e., balanced school) and two White British majority schools (i.e., majority skewed schools). Results showed that positive intergroup contact and attitudes improved more in the balanced school than in the majority skewed schools. In all schools, change in adolescents' positive intergroup contact predicted change in positive intergroup attitudes indirectly via (a) increased accuracy of perceived outgroup willingness for contact and (b) reduced intergroup anxiety. Indirect effects via accuracy of perceived contact willingness were stronger for adolescents who made more negative affective forecasts than for other adolescents. These moderated mediation effects were stronger in the balanced school than in the majority skewed schools. Thus, more balanced ethnic mixing in schools seemed to directly enhance positive intergroup relations and attitudes for all adolescents, but to particularly benefit adolescents who made more negative affective forecasts about positive contact before the school merger. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

The codevelopment of extraversion and friendships: Bonding and behavioral interaction mechanisms in friendship networks.

Empirical evidence suggests that people select friends whose extraversion is similar to their own (selection). However, little is known about whether friends influence extraversion development (influence) and about the interaction mechanisms that underlie friendship selection and influence. We examined whether selection and influence explain similarity in extraversion between friends in two independent samples. Similarity in extraversion predicted a higher likelihood of friendship selection across 4 years in Sample 1 (n = 1,698; Mage = 22.72, SD = 2.99; 49% female) and across a period of 16 weeks in Sample 2 (n = 131; Mage = 21.34, SD = 3.95; 77% female). Friends' extraversion predicted increases in young adults' extraversion in both samples. In Sample 2, we examined the interaction mechanisms underlying selection and influence by combining event-based experience-sampling network changes with diary data on friendship network and extraversion changes. Findings showed that (a) similarity in extraversion predicted positive interaction quality changes and (b) positive interaction quality predicted friendship selection (bonding mechanism). In the same model, (a) friends' extraversion predicted friends' sociable behavior changes, (b) friends' sociable behavior predicted young adults' sociable behavior changes, and (c) young adults' sociable behavior predicted young adults' extraversion changes (behavioral mimicry mechanism). These findings provide unique insight into interaction mechanisms underlying longitudinal links between friendships and extraversion. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Longitudinal Links Between Adolescent Social Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms: Testing the Mediational Effects of Cybervictimization.

This study focuses on the temporal sequence between social anxiety and depressive symptoms, and whether cybervictimization might mediate these links. We used a longitudinal sample of 501 early adolescents (51.9% girls; Mage = 13.96) followed at three time points. Using a cross-lagged path model in MPlus, we found that social anxiety predicted depressive symptoms over time, but not the other way around. Time-1 depressive symptoms also predicted cybervictimization, but only for boys and not for girls. No mediating effects of cybervictimization emerged; however, Time-2 social anxiety was a significant mediator between Time-1 social anxiety and depressive symptoms, whereas Time-2 depressive symptoms significantly mediated the link between Time-1 social anxiety and Time-3 depressive symptoms. In sum, social anxiety was a strong predictor of depressive symptoms over time but not vice versa-irrespective of cybervictimization.

Is accurate, positive, or inflated self-perception most advantageous for psychological adjustment? A competitive test of key hypotheses.

Empirical research on the (mal-)adaptiveness of favorable self-perceptions, self-enhancement, and self-knowledge has typically applied a classical null-hypothesis testing approach and provided mixed and even contradictory findings. Using data from 5 studies (laboratory and field, total N = 2,823), we used an information-theoretic approach combined with Response Surface Analysis to provide the first competitive test of 6 popular hypotheses: that more favorable self-perceptions are adaptive versus maladaptive (Hypotheses 1 and 2: Positivity of self-view hypotheses), that higher levels of self-enhancement (i.e., a higher discrepancy of self-viewed and objectively assessed ability) are adaptive versus maladaptive (Hypotheses 3 and 4: Self-enhancement hypotheses), that accurate self-perceptions are adaptive (Hypothesis 5: Self-knowledge hypothesis), and that a slight degree of self-enhancement is adaptive (Hypothesis 6: Optimal margin hypothesis). We considered self-perceptions and objective ability measures in two content domains (reasoning ability, vocabulary knowledge) and investigated 6 indicators of intra- and interpersonal psychological adjustment. Results showed that most adjustment indicators were best predicted by the positivity of self-perceptions. There were some specific self-enhancement effects, and evidence generally spoke against the self-knowledge and optimal margin hypotheses. Our results highlight the need for comprehensive and simultaneous tests of competing hypotheses. Implications for the understanding of underlying processes are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Enhanced versus simply positive: A new condition-based regression analysis to disentangle effects of self-enhancement from effects of positivity of self-view.

Despite a large body of literature and ongoing refinements of analytical techniques, research on the consequences of self-enhancement (SE) is still vague about how to define SE effects, and empirical results are inconsistent. In this paper, we point out that part of this confusion is due to a lack of conceptual and methodological differentiation between effects of individual differences in how much people enhance themselves (SE) and in how positively they view themselves (positivity of self-view; PSV). We show that methods commonly used to analyze SE effects are biased because they cannot differentiate between the effects of PSV and the effects of SE. We provide a new condition-based regression analysis (CRA) that unequivocally identifies effects of SE by testing intuitive and mathematically derived conditions on the coefficients in a bivariate linear regression. Using data from 3 studies on intellectual SE (total N = 566), we then illustrate that the CRA provides novel results as compared with traditional methods. Results suggest that many previously identified SE effects are in fact effects of PSV alone. The new CRA approach thus provides a clear and unbiased understanding of the consequences of SE. It can be applied to all conceptualizations of SE and, more generally, to every context in which the effects of the discrepancy between 2 variables on a third variable are examined. (PsycINFO Database Record

Developmental Dynamics of Intergroup Contact and Intergroup Attitudes: Long-Term Effects in Adolescence and Early Adulthood.

Intergroup contact represents a powerful way to improve intergroup attitudes and to overcome prejudice and discrimination. However, long-term effects of intergroup contact that consider social network dynamics have rarely been studied at a young age. Study 1 validated an optimized social network approach to investigate intergroup contact (N = 6,457; Mage  = 14.91 years). Study 2 explored the developmental trajectories of intergroup contact by applying this validated network approach in a cross-sequential design (four-cohort-four-wave; N = 3,815; 13-26 years). Accelerated growth curve models showed that contact predicts the development of attitudes in adolescence, whereas acquired attitudes buffer against decreasing contact in adulthood. Findings highlight the potential of social network analysis and the developmental importance of early intergroup contact experiences.

Violent peer influence: The roles of self-esteem and psychopathic traits.

Evidence for the risks of psychopathic personality traits for adolescent antisocial behavior are well documented in the literature. Little is known, however, about who the peers of adolescents with these traits are and to what extent they influence one another. In the current study, three dimensions of psychopathic traits were distinguished: grandiose-manipulative traits, callous-unemotional traits, and impulsive-irresponsible traits. A dynamic social network approach was used with three waves of longitudinal data from 1,772 adolescents (51.1% girls, M age = 13.03 at first measurement). Results showed that adolescents with grandiose-manipulative and callous-unemotional traits formed peer relationships with adolescents who had low self-esteem. Furthermore, peers' violence predicted stronger increases in violence for adolescents with low self-esteem than for other adolescents, and peers' violence predicted stronger increases in adolescent violence for peers with high psychopathic traits than for other peers. Thus, findings indicate that adolescents with low self-esteem are vulnerable to deviant peer influence from peers with psychopathic traits.

Idiosyncratic versus social consensus approaches to personality: Self-view, perceived, and peer-view similarity.

In the current studies, the authors examined how peers influence friendship choices through individuals' perceptions of similarity between their own and others' Big Five traits. Self-reported and peer-reported data were gathered from 3 independent samples using longitudinal round-robin designs. Peers' ratings of how similar 2 persons appeared in extraversion and agreeableness predicted friendship formation likelihood between these 2 persons in all samples. This association was mediated by perceived similarity. Furthermore, another mediation effect was found for similarity in interaction style: Persons who were viewed by peers as having similar extraversion and agreeableness levels became more similar in interaction styles. Thus, the current studies indicate that extraversion and agreeableness influence the emergence of social relationships through intrapersonal perceptions of similarity and interpersonal social interactions. We encourage researchers to look at specific similarity effects that influence interpersonal and intrapersonal processes to understand how relationships are formed.

The importance of perceived care and connectedness with friends and parents for adolescent social anxiety.

Nonclinical social anxiety in adolescence can be highly problematic, as it likely affects current and especially new social interactions. Relationships with significant others, such as close friends, mothers, and fathers, could aid socially anxious adolescents' participation in social situations, thereby helping reduce feelings of social anxiety. We examined whether making friends as well as high friendship quality help reduce social anxiety over time, and whether friends', mothers', and fathers' care interact in reducing social anxiety. Using longitudinal data from 2,194 participants in a social network (48% girls; Mage = 13.58) followed for 3 years, we estimated friendship selection and influence processes via a continuous time-modeling approach using SIENA. We controlled for the effects of depressive symptoms, self-esteem, gender, age, and family structure. Our findings suggest that perceived care by friends mediated the effect of making friends on social anxiety. Perceptions of mother and father, as well as friend care and connectedness, respectively, did not interact in decreasing social anxiety. Nonetheless, care and connectedness with mothers, fathers, and friends jointly predicted decreases in social anxiety. Caring relationships with friends and parents each play a role in mutually protecting early adolescents against increasing in social anxiety over time.

Developmental trajectories of prejudice and tolerance toward immigrants from early to late adolescence.

Adolescence is an important period for the development of relationships between immigrants and non-immigrants, yet little is known about how problematic personality traits affect adolescents' relationships with and attitudes toward immigrants. This work identified the roles of intergroup relationships and one dimension of problematic personality traits, namely callous-unemotional traits, in the development of adolescents' tolerance and prejudice. Three annual measurements of a large community sample (N = 1,542) of non-immigrant adolescents (M age = 15.31 at first measurement; 50.2% girls) were used to show that tolerance and prejudice toward immigrants represent two dimensions with distinct developmental trajectories from early to late adolescence. Callous-unemotional traits predicted fewer decreases in prejudice toward immigrants, yet were not directly associated with tolerance. Intergroup friendships predicted stronger increases in tolerance, which, in turn, predicted decreases in prejudice toward immigrants. Thus, tolerance and prejudice toward immigrants seem to be differentially influenced by social experiences and problematic personality traits.

Xenophobia and tolerance toward immigrants in adolescence: cross-influence processes within friendships.

To what extent do adolescents and their friends socialize each others' attitudes toward immigrants? Can friends' positive attitudes toward immigrants counter adolescents' negative attitudes toward immigrants, and do friends' negative attitudes decrease adolescents' positive attitudes? These questions were examined by following a large (N = 1,472) friendship network of adolescents (49.2 % girls; M(age) = 13.31 at first measurement) across three annual measurements. Selection and influence processes regarding tolerance and xenophobia were distinguished with longitudinal social network analyses, controlling for effects of age, gender, and immigrant background. Findings showed that friends' tolerance predicted increases in adolescents' tolerance and friends' xenophobia predicted increases in adolescents' xenophobia. Moreover, friends' tolerance predicted a lower likelihood of adolescents' xenophobia increasing. The current results suggest that interventions should distinguish between tolerance and xenophobia, as these appear to represent two separate dimensions that are each influenced in specific ways by friends' tolerance and xenophobia.

Psychopathic traits moderate peer influence on adolescent delinquency.

BACKGROUND: Peer influence on adolescent delinquency is well established, but little is known about moderators of peer influence. In this study, we examined adolescents' (targets) and their peers' psychopathic personality traits as moderators of peer influence on delinquency in peer networks. We used three separate dimensions of the psychopathic personality: grandiose-manipulative traits, callous-unemotional traits, and impulsive-irresponsible traits. METHODS: We used a peer network approach with five waves of longitudinal data from 847 adolescents in one community. Peer nominations were not limited to the school context, thus allowing us to capture all potentially important peers. In addition, peers reported on their own delinquency, thus allowing us to avoid problems of false consensus or projection that arise when individuals report on their peers' delinquency. We used simulation investigation for empirical network analyses (SIENA), which is the only program currently available that can be used to study peer influence effects in peer networks of multiple relationships while controlling for selection effects. RESULTS: Targets' and peers' callous-unemotional and grandiose-manipulative traits uniquely moderated peer influence on delinquency. Relative to those with low levels, targets who were high on these traits were less influenced by peers' delinquency, and peers who were high on these traits were more influential on targets' delinquency. Selection effects were found for impulsive-irresponsible traits, but these traits did not moderate peer influence on delinquency. CONCLUSIONS: As the first study to look at moderating effects of psychopathic traits on peer influence, this study advances knowledge about peer influence on delinquency and about psychopathic traits in adolescents. In addition, the study contributes to the literature by looking at unique effects of the three dimensions of psychopathy and taking a peer network approach, in which network effects, self-selection, and other selection effects are controlled when examining influence and moderators of influence.

Positive intelligence illusions: on the relation between intellectual self-enhancement and psychological adjustment.

The relation between self-enhancement and psychological adjustment has been debated for over 2 decades. This controversy is partly due to the variety of approaches implicated in the assessment of mainly self-enhancement but also psychological adjustment. We adopted a face-valid approach by statistically removing actual intellectual ability variance from self-rated intellectual ability variance. Study 1 (N = 2,048), a concurrent Internet investigation, provided initial insight into the relation between intellectual self-enhancement and psychological adjustment. Study 2 (N = 238), a longitudinal round-robin investigation, allowed a closer examination of the dynamic processes underlying this relation. Self-enhancement was positively linked to multiple indicators of intrapersonal and interpersonal adjustment, and predicted rank-order increases in adjustment over time. The links between intellectual self-enhancement and intrapersonal adjustment were mediated by self-esteem. Finally, the interpersonal costs and benefits of self-enhancement systematically varied depending on methodology.

Who benefits from chatting, and why? The roles of extraversion and supportiveness in online chatting and emotional adjustment.

The current study aimed to provide more insight into the role of online chatting in young adults' emotional adjustment. A model was tested that takes into account (a) extraversion of individuals who communicate online, (b) the kind of peers these individuals communicate with online (i.e., online-exclusive peers vs. friends), and (c) the extent to which effects of online chatting on emotional adjustment are mediated by individuals' ability to provide support to others. Young adults (age M = 18.9) filled out questionnaires about themselves and their fellow students at three measurements with a 4-month interval. Results showed that only for less extraverted individuals, chatting with peers found exclusively online directly predicted higher self-esteem and indirectly predicted less depressive symptoms through increases in supportiveness. Thus, results supported a model of social compensation where effects of online chatting with online-exclusive peers improved young adults' emotional adjustment.

Socialization of social anxiety in adolescent crowds.

In this study, we looked at whether social anxiety is socialized, or influenced by peers' social anxiety, more in some peer crowds than others. Adolescents in crowds with eye-catching appearances such as Goths and Punks (here termed Radical), were compared with three comparison groups. Using data from 796 adolescents (353 girls and 443 boys; M ( age ) = 13.36) at three timepoints, the results show that adolescents affiliating with the Radical crowd tended to select peers from the same crowd group. Being a member of a crowd in itself did not predict socialization of social anxiety, but adolescents in the Radical crowd were more influenced by their peers' social anxiety than adolescents who did not affiliate with the Radical crowd group. The results suggest that through a bidirectional process, adolescents affiliating with Radical crowds may narrow their peer relationship ties in time, and in turn socialize each other's social anxiety.

Social anxiety as a basis for friendship selection and socialization in adolescents' social networks.

Socially anxious children and adolescents have previously been found to have friends with similarly socially anxious, withdrawn behavioral characteristics. How peers might socialize social anxiety over time has, however, not been thoroughly investigated. We examined this in a sample of 834 youths (339 girls and 495 boys; M=14.29), followed for 3 years. We used the social network analysis software SIENA to analyze the data. The results showed that youths who were socially anxious were less popular and chose fewer friends in the network. They also tended to choose friends who were socially anxious, and over time they influenced each other into becoming more socially anxious--over and above other effects. Finally, girls' social anxiety was more influenced than boys' by their friends' social anxiety levels. The results showed the significance of looking at socially anxious youths' friendships over time and embedded in social networks.